There will be a Prediction Markets Summit in New York City on February, 3, 2006 sponsored by KM Cluster. There was a similar one in San Francisco recently that was well received. The wikipedia defines Predict Markets as:
“Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative (i.e., betting) markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.”
Predict markets are being used increasingly in business for a variety of purposes. Here are some Prediction Market Blogs listed by KM Cluster.
Otter Group
Chris Masse
Marginal Revolution
Commerce.net Blog
Washington Stock Exchange
Risk Markets and Politics
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