Colabria, Newsfutures, and Commercenet are sponsoring the Prediction Markets Summit on Friday, December, 2, 2005 from 8 to 5 at the Mission Bay Conference Center in San Francisco. As the KM Cluster site says, ‘Prediction markets are also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.” Naturally James (Wisdom of Crowds) Surowiecki is a big fan and he has written, "Market predictions often outperform those of even the best-informed expert."
Business Week named prediction markets as a top technology trend for 2005 and they fit within the Web 2.0 approach of drawing on participant knowledge. Here is a list of readings about prediction markets. You can register at the KM Cluster site.
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